Hurricane Paloma: Discussion #7

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE PALOMA IS STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED
TO AT LEAST 981 MB...AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE SFMR AND DROPSONDE
ESTIMATES OF 65-70 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE 16 N MI WIDE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. WHILE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT
10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. PALOMA IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO SHEAR APART
AT VARIOUS TIMES BETWEEN 24-96 HR...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WINDING UP ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP PALOMA TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SINCE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE
GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED FROM 35 KT TO 70 KT IN THE LAST 24 HR...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HR. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE AIDED BY PASSAGE ACROSS
CUBA BETWEEN 48-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY
120 HR. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CAST SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER
THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...EVEN IF PALOMA DOES NOT
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IT SHOULD STILL WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.8N 81.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.6N 81.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 81.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 20.4N 80.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 21.1N 79.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 73.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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