Fri AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 09N85W
TO 06N100W TO 11N128W TO 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W
AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LATE YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS
MORNING INDICATE THE GALE EVENT IN NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE WANE. STILL THOUGH...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
...TAKEN WITH THOSE EARLIER DATA...SUGGEST THAT NW WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY BLOWING N OF 25N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. CORROBORATING THIS IS THE NOAA SHIP THE DAVID STAR
JORDAN ANCHORED CLOSE TO 31N114.7W...WHICH IS STILL REPORTING NW
WINDS NEAR 25 KT. ALTHOUGH THE FETCH AREA IS RATHER NARROW...THE
NOAA WAVEWATCH III MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SEAS HAVE BUILT TO AT
LEAST 8 FT...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO OBSERVE SEAS JUST
SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF THIS VALUE. THE PATTERN WHICH FAVORED THIS
WIND EVENT SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

ON THE HEELS OF A LONG-LIVED GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LAST WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER ONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS A DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. SHIFTS E TODAY AND INTRODUCES A HEALTHY DOSE OF A
COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO MUCH OF
NORTHERN MEXICO. INCREASING PRESSURES SHOULD THEN ARRIVE INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TONIGHT AND INITIATE N TO NE
WINDS TO 20 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20
TO 25 KT WITH SOME ISOLATED 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT BY SUN. SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY BUILD UP TO 8 FT IN A FEW AREAS WITHIN 240 NM DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER SAT AND SUN.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT N OF A LINE FROM
27N129W TO 28N123W SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS WITH
SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND IT BY SUN...LEADING TO YET ANOTHER INCREASE
IN WINDS. EXPECT NW TO N WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W
AND 125W BY SUN MORNING...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT REAPPEARING OVER
THIS AREA. FARTHER SW...ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEHIND A
STRING OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST HAS BEEN KEEPING
TRADES BLOWING STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL IN A BELT ROUGHLY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 125W. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED YESTERDAY
AND ARE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN LATER
THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT TODAY IN NE TO E SWELL
TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE ABOVE AREA
LATER THIS WEEKEND.


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