Hurricane Palmoa: Discussion #8

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF
NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. BY SUNDAY...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO SUCH
A HIGH DEGREE THAT PALOMA MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
ON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SINCE THE BAROCLINIC
INFLUENCES SEEM LIMITED...REMNANT LOW SEEMS LIKE THE MORE ACCURATE
TERM. THE CANADIAN TERM POST-TROPICAL MAY ALSO FIT THIS SITUATION.

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PALOMA HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING 005/6. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE EARLY PART OF THE NHC FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST PALOMA LEAVES THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE STORM FALLS
APART. A POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
AND HIGH SHEAR CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE
AFTER A CUBAN LANDFALL...CAUSING PALOMA TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.
THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILTY IN THE MOST RECENT
GFS AND HWRF MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.3N 81.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 20.8N 79.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 21.6N 78.3W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 72.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW


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