Hurricane Paloma: Discussion #9

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

AS IT HAS DONE SINCE THE FIRST ADVISORY...PALOMA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DOING SO AT A QUICKER PACE.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE FOUND PEAK 10000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 106 KT...SFMR WINDS
OF 88 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 90 KT...AND HIGHER WINDS WILL SURELY BE FOUND IN SHORT
ORDER. BARRING AN EYEWALL CYCLE...PALOMA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
UNTIL THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...
STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR IS FORECAST UP
UNTIL A LANDFALL IN CUBA. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM
QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/5...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. TRACK MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO PALOMA IN THE
LONGER-TERM. HOWEVER...I'M STARTING TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE
SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR APART NORTH
OF CUBA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING LEFT BEHIND AND MOVING
SLOWLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...GFS...AND HWRF...THE FASTER
MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE NOW SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND ACTUALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER
MOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE
ADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF
PALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 18.7N 81.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 80.9W 100 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 21.1N 78.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 21.8N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1800Z 22.7N 76.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 23.5N 75.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 12/1800Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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