Sat Afternoon East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...
06N77W TO 06N105W TO 11N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 09N124.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE POINT 12N131W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM 25N123W TO
17N130W TO 12N140W. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 21.5N131W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED BY WESTERLY FLOW AND
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST RAPIDLY TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
AFTER 36 HOURS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS 600 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION MOSTLY WEST OF
135W. OTHER THAN WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER THE
AREA WEST AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 125W.

EXCEPT FOR A LIMITED AREA NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICA ISTHMUS THE
AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ IS DRY AND CLOUD
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W.
ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.


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