Hurricane Paloma: Discussion #14

HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING...
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 142 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT...AND A RISING MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB. 125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP...THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOON. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH...HOWEVER...IS
LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE
COAST. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND. THIS
WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT HIGHER THAN...THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

THE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN
STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE
LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PALOMA MAY START
TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE.

EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
PALOMA.

PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN
NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.5N 78.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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