Hurricane Paloma: Discussion #14

HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA NEARING THE COAST OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THIS
WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 4 PM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...ACKLINS
ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115
KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO CRUZ. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 35
MILES...60 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AFTER LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
CUBA TONIGHT...EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE SUNDAY...AND BE
NEARING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL THEN STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25
FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

REPEATING THE 400 PM EST POSITION...20.5 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.


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