Tue AM East Pac Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG THE LINE
07N77W 10N88W 06N110W 09N130W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND
98W AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 136W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND
131W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA THROUGH NRN
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 27N123W AND IS SWEEPING SE. A MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N139W HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
TROUGH AND IS MOVING WSW BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL NW OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER NRN MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
TROUGH NOTED ABOVE IS MERGING WITH A LONG LIVED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 30N100W TO
21N125W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 11N140W.

A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE PLUME IS CENTERED ALONG 27N100W 22N110W 12N125W
AND IS ABOUT 300 NM WIDE E OF 115W AND 600 NM WIDE W OF 115W.
THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ WEST OF
125W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET CAPS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CORE SPEEDS OF 100-110 KT
OVER NRN MEXICO.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF
110W AND WAS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS AN AREA OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN
90W AND 95W. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF CONVECTION NWD TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N138W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE
THROUGH 25N125W TO 20N110W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH AND ALLOW CURRENT AREA OF 25-30 KT TRADES FROM
14N TO 20N W OF 130W TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR
TIMEFRAME. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 13 FT IN THE AREA OF
STRONG TRADES THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE.


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