Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM ANNUAL AVERAGES OF TROPICAL
STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 11...
6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2009 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
--------------------------------------------------------------
ANA AH- NAH LARRY
BILL MINDY
CLAUDETTE CLAW DET- NICHOLAS NIK- O LAS
DANNY ODETTE O DET-
ERIKA ERR- REE KA PETER
FRED ROSE
GRACE SAM
HENRI AHN REE- TERESA TE REE- SA
IDA VICTOR VIC- TER
JOAQUIN WAH KEEN- WANDA
KATE

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEGINNING
THIS YEAR...THE OUTLOOK WILL ALSO CONTAIN CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES
OF FORMATION...I.E. LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...MEDIUM...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OR HIGH...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR EACH DISTURBANCE
DESCRIBED. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...
2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN
NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM
EDT.

IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT COULD
BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES IN
BETWEEN ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE SPECIAL
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND WILL NO
LONGER BE ISSUED. INSTEAD...A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO
AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED
EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN
ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO
ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

USERS WILL NOTICE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO REFERENCES TO THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE IN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PUBLIC
PRODUCTS THIS YEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE CATEGORY
(1 TO 5) IS DETERMINED SOLELY BY THE HURRICANE'S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED...THE SCALE TRADITIONALLY HAS ALSO INCLUDED STORM SURGE
RANGES AND FLOODING REFERENCES. ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR THE
2009 HURRICANE SEASON...THESE STORM SURGE RANGES AND FLOODING
REFERENCES WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE DESCRIPTIONS FOR EACH CATEGORY.
WITH THIS MODIFICATION...THE SCALE HAS BEEN RENAMED THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO
THE WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS OF THE SCALE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS EXPERIMENTAL CHANGE AND ON HOW TO PROVIDE COMMENTS...PLEASE
SEE /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/INFOSERVICECHANGES/SSHWS.PDF


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