Friday Morning Forecast Discussion

The weather in East Mississippi and West Alabama could not be better for the end of August this week! Our nice weather continues for our Friday and into our weekend. Humidity though will be slowly increasing, and that may lead to a stray shower and storm Saturday and Sunday, but most of us will remain dry.

The big forecast question of course is Tropical Storm Isaac. As of the 7am advisory, maximum sustained winds are at 50mph, and it is moving west at 15mph.

For a comparison, the track of Tropical Storm Isaac has been very similar to Hurricane Frederic in 1979. Many of us around here of course remember Frederic, and the two tracks are very similar. The only difference is that Isaac is actually a little further south than Frederic was at the same point.

Isaac so far has struggled to intensify despite great looking upper level features. The storm is ventilating itself nicely, but the center of circulation has two parts that are not aligned. The upper level center of circulation is sitting north of the surface circulation. The two need to be over top of each other for the storm to develop further, as the surface features in the tropics control the upper level features. Once these two align, as they are showing signs of doing this morning, we could see rapid intensification up to hurricane status in a matter of hours.

As for where Isaac is going, the National Hurricane Center now has the entire Newscenter 11 viewing area in the cone of uncertainty at day 5, and if you extend the center line track, the center of Isaac could pass over us at day 6. Isaac looks to have impacts for us for the middle of next week, either direct from the system or indirect from it passing close to us.

Now as for what we can expect, it is still way to early to tell. There is plenty of uncertainty in the track and intensity at this point. So, you do not need to run out to the grocery store to stock up yet, but please stay alert over the weekend. Stay with us at wtok.com/weather/hurricane for the latest advisories and information on Isaac.


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