Hurricane Humberto - 10am Wednesday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE... WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.

HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


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