Hurricane Humberto - 4pm Thursday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THE EYE...ALTHOUGH RAGGED AND INTERMITTENT...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75 KNOTS. HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO WEAKEN AND HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE HUMBERTO TO MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


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