Thursday Weather & Tropics Discussion

By: Stephen Bowers Email
By: Stephen Bowers Email

Our short-term forecast is mostly one that favors sunshine and warming temperatures, as it is dictated by a high pressure ridge building into our area from the west. Our long-term forecast is one that is full of uncertainty and will highly depend on the future of Tropical Storm Isaac. Tropical Storm Isaac is under the steering influence of another high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. High pressure at the top of the storm is helping to ventilate the storm, and while conditions seem overall favorable for steady intensification, that intensification is just not happening. Detailed analysis suggests the inflow from the south could be being somewhat blocked by the mountainous terrain of South America. If that is the case, Isaac will begin intensifying as it approaches Haiti and Cuba. Interaction with land will help to disorganize the storm and likely will mean some weakening before Isaac moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, the high pressure over us and the high pressure over the Atlantic together become important. Tropical Storm Isaac will move toward and through the gap between these two high pressure ridges. Two questions: how large is that gap? And where exactly will that gap be located? For now, anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend from Tuesday to Thursday next week is fair game, and that's as specific as I am willing to be right now with the ultimate path of Tropical Storm Isaac.

Here at home, tonight will be clear and cool The low will be near 61. The wind will be near calm. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny. The high will be near 92. Saturday will be partly cloudy. The morning low will be near 66. The afternoon high will be near 93. Sunday will be partly cloudy. THe morning low will be near 67. The afternoon high will be near 93. Monday will be partly cloudy. The morning low will be near 67. The afternoon high will be near 92. Tuesday through Thursday depends on the path of Tropical Storm Isaac. For now, we assume Isaac follows the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. Tuesday will be partly cloudy with a few afternoon showers. The morning low will be near 69. The afternoon high will be near 91. Wednesday will be partly cloudy with a few afternoon showers. The morning low will be near 73. The afternoon high will be near 90. Thursday will be partly cloudy with a few afternoon showers. The morning low will be near 73. The afternoon high will be near 91.


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