Tropical Depression Fernand - 10am Wednesday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.


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