Tropical Depression Ten - 10pm Thursday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA... BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.


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