Tropical Storm Chantal - 4pm Monday Advisory

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF CHANTAL HAS OCCURRED TODAY...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND IT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY SHORTLY. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/23 KT. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...SO A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY DAYS 3-5...A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND PHASE UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND PRODUCE A WEAKER STEERING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF CHANTAL FAVOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...AND CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES HISPANIOLA. AFTER CHANTAL MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA ON DAY 2/3...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL.


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