Tropical Storm Dorian - 10am Friday Advisory

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DORIAN IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THIS...ALONG WITH MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.


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