Tropical Storm Dorian - 4pm Friday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED AT THIS TIME. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.

THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.


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