Tropical Storm Ernesto: 4 PM Thursday Advisory

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.


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