Tropical Storm Humberto - 4pm Friday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO REDEVELOP NEAR HUMBERTO IN THE FACE OF SOME RATHER STRONG SHEAR. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS COULD BE REFINED A BIT AFTER THE NEXT SCATTEROMETER PASS. AN EXTREMELY LARGE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR HUMBERTO. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HUMBERTO DROP TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL FIND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HUMBERTO AS A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED IN THE SHORTER TERM...BUT IS KEPT THE SAME AT THE END.

THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE LEFT...NOW 290/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A STRONG RIDGE STEERS THE STORM BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO RECURVES OUT TO SEA...WITH THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTING A MUCH FASTER TRACK THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT WAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


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