Tropical Storm Ingrid - 4pm Friday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.


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