Tropical Storm Isaac is well into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning.
There is good news and bad news with Isaac this morning. The good news is it has yet to begin a rapid intensification cycle. The bad news is Isaac is about to move over the warm Gulf of Mexico loop current, and significant strengthening is very much possible.
Another bit of good news is southeasterly wind shear appears to be affecting Isaac's organization. Satellite presentation this morning shows an organizing tropical storm. The storm is moving mainly northwestward. If it continues on that direction, and it could, it would likely make landfall on the Louisiana coast just south of New Orleans. It's also very much possible that a northward turn could bring the center inland over the Mississippi Coast.
As I am analyzing data and models this morning, It's hard to ignore a bit of a trough in the middle and upper atmosphere that is trying to slide south. That may be what pulls Isaac a bit to the north. There is still considerable uncertainty with Isaac's forecast. It's important to remember weather conditions can be rough well away from the low pressure center at the core of Isaac.
Locally, heavy rain could contribute to flash flooding. Strong tropical storm force winds could contribute to widespread damage. Tornadoes are also possible across all of our East Mississippi and West Alabama area, though the greatest threat will likely be the western parts of our area closest to the low pressure center.
Stay with us as we continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Isaac's approach to the northern Gulf Coast.