Tropical Storm Isaac's satellite presentation is quite disheveled this morning, but the storm is over open water and trying to organize. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop and intensify over the core of Isaac, and once the storm moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico rapid strengthening is possible.
Models have been fairly consistent since midday Saturday a northwest track through the Gulf of Mexico with a landfall between the Mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has been adjusted and now brings Isaac inland just west of Mobile Bay early Wednesday morning.
The intensity forecast is a little more tricky. The official forecast suggests 105 mph winds around the time of landfall. This is very much possible, but some forecast models intensify Isaac to a 115 mph category three hurricane. That is also very much possible.
The latest forecast is one that means considerably more impacts for our area. In fact, as the storm continues inland it is expected to pass very near Meridian early Thursday as a tropical storm. Locally we can expect periods of very heavy rainfall with flash flooding, possible flooding of small rivers and streams, winds of 35-50 mph with higher gusts, and occasional tornadoes.
The exact path of the storm's center will help dictate the primary tornado threat area, but remember that significant severe weather is possible well away from the center. Along the coast, storm surge flooding of 8-12 feet is possible along with widespread damage and power outages. The
Stay with us at Newscenter 11 for continued updates on the progress of Tropical Storm Isaac.