Tropical Storm Jerry - 10am Tuesday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION. BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.


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