Tropical Storm Jerry - 4pm Tuesday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

AFTER BEING SERIOUS DISRUPTED EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THERE IS JUST A LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT JERRY SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO MOVEMENT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...JERRY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHEAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. THE NEW GFS FORECAST IS EVEN FASTER AND THIS IS A FAIRLY DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THIS MODEL.


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