Tropical Storm Lorenzo - 10am Wednesday Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX BRIEFLY IN 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND COMES IN PHASE WITH LORENZO. BY THAT TIME HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 5 KT. LORENZO IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE SLOWER MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE MOSTLY THE SAME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST OF LORENZO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS...ALONG WITH FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO OR ITS REMNANT LOW TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.


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