Tropical Storm Bret -- 4 pm Monday Advisory

TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST. BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND BRET COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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