Tuesday Evening Tropical Weather Outlook

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED IN EXTENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


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