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Tropical development increasingly likely in the Atlantic

Two disturbance in the Tropical Atlantic are being monitored for signs of development.
Two disturbance in the Tropical Atlantic are being monitored for signs of development.(WTOK)
Published: Jun. 29, 2021 at 7:14 PM CDT
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MERIDIAN, Miss. (WTOK) - Two disturbances in the Tropical Atlantic between the Caribbean Sea and Africa are being monitored for signs of tropical development.

Development Unlikely

The first system in line was about 500 miles east of the island of Barbados, in the Lesser Antilles, on Monday evening. This system is disorganized, and new data late Monday suggests this system is becoming less organized and less likely to develop. The National Hurricane Center has decreased the probability of development from 40% to 20%. Even with no significant development, this system can bring tropical downpours and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and then to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Thursday and Friday.

Development More Likely

The second disturbance looks healthier tonight. It is nearly 1,000 miles east of the first disturbance and about 1,400 miles east/southeast of Barbados - roughly halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. It is tracking westward and gradually becoming better organized. Broad low pressure has formed with this system. This part of the Atlantic is historically more favored for development in July than in June. Conditions appear favorable for further organization and development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives this system 40% odds of development by Thursday and 60% odds of development by the end of the weekend.

Where Is It Going?

The track forecasts, shown below, are ominous at a quick glance. Nearly all of the available guidance shows a track toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday. That’s not a guarantee, however. This forecast can change. One point where some big change is possible is as this system tracks over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Historically, that area is a tropical storm and hurricane grave yard. The environment is usually quite hostile and shreds tropical systems that move through this region. A few do survive, however, and this one must get out of this area intact before the warm Gulf of Mexico is a viable option.

Stay Updated

This system is worth watching, but again, stay informed of updates over time. A lot can change in a week, and a lot probably will change in a week. If it were to affect us in East Mississippi and West Alabama, it would most likely happen between Wednesday and Friday of next week (July 9-12). Stay tuned....

A lot of agreement among the various track forecasts is a good thing for a forecast, but this...
A lot of agreement among the various track forecasts is a good thing for a forecast, but this is not a forecast we want to see. A lot can change in the next week.(WTOK)

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