New Gray TV/Alabama Daily News Poll shows Ivey holds comfortable GOP primary lead
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WBRC) – A new poll, commissioned by Alabama Daily News and Gray Television, shows Gov. Kay Ivey has grown her lead in the Republican primary since a similar poll was taken in August.
Asked who they would vote for if the election was held today, 46.1% of the 600 Republican primary voters surveyed chose Ivey, while 12.4% chose businessman Tim James and 10.4% chose former U.S. Ambassador Lindy Blanchard. The survey showed 21.3% of voters remain undecided in the race.
The Ivey campaign still has work to do if they want to avoid a runoff, because the governor would have to win above 50% of the vote in the May 24th primary in order to avoid a runoff with the second place finisher.
If the Republican primary election for Governor were held today, and you had to make a choice, who would you vote for?
Kay Ivey 46.1%
Tim James 12.4%
Lindy Blanchard 10.4%
Dean Odle 4.7%
Lew Burdette 1.6%
Someone else 3.4%
Ivey’s lead has grown by 4.5% since a similar poll in August showed the incumbent governor with 41.5% support while 33% were undecided.
Todd Stacy with Alabama Daily News said, “She needs 50% to avoid a runoff, she’s 4 points away. What I look at is 21.3% undecided and that’s a really important number because they’ve gotta go somewhere.”
Despite pointed criticism of some Covid-related restrictions and a heavy amount of spending on TV/Radio/Digital ads by 2 of her opponents, Ivey’s approval rating among Republicans also improved since August. 66.6% of Republican voters approve of the way Ivey is handling her job as governor, while 21.6% disapprove. Compare that to the August survey when 60.3% approved of Ivey’s performance and 28.3% disapproved.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kay Ivey is handling her job as Governor?
Strongly approve 33.0%
Somewhat approve 33.6%
Total approve 66.6%
Somewhat disapprove 13.6%
Strongly disapprove 7.9%
Total disapprove 21.6%
Neither approve or disapprove10.4%
Ivey’s lead is less, however, than in a McLaughlin and Associates poll taken a week earlier showing her with 60% support among Republican primary voters. That poll included which candidate voters leaned toward and showed just 14.4% remained undecided.
“Any incumbent governor seeking re-election would love to have a 66% approval rating among their own party heading into that primary, that’s where she’s at,” Stacy said.
The survey also tested the race for Alabama Supreme Court Place 5, with 10.5% choosing Greg Cook while 7.3% chose Deborah Jones, 82.1% remain undecided.
If the Republican primary election for Supreme Court were held today, and you had to make achoice, who would you vote for?
Greg Cook 10.5%
Deborah Jones 7.3%
The survey was conducted by Cygnal, an award-winning polling and predictive analysis firm based in Washington, D.C. 600 likely Republican voters were surveyed March 16-17 via interactive voice response and text message. The poll carries a margin for error of +/-4%.
The two best-funded challengers to Ivey are spending heavily on television and radio, showing why they’ve picked up at least some traction in the ADN/Gray poll.
According to the latest campaign finance reports, James spent more than $523,000 on radio and TV, most of it with Red Eagle Media. Blanchard came in second, spending about $477,000 on the air with Virginia-based Multi Media Services Corporation.
Both outspent Ivey, whose campaign shows $424,400 spent on radio and television advertising through Ohio-based Flexpoint Media Inc.
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