Friday, April 12 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

The cold front moving through the area today and stalled near Interstate 20/59 to produce plenty of rain along that corridor. The result has been more rain and cooler temperatures in the heart of the viewing area over the previous forecast. Most of the rain has fizzled out, but a shower or two will be possible this evening and overnight as the front starts to lift northward as a warm front in advance of a strong system that will arrive late Saturday.

As we sit south of the warm front on Saturday, a shower or storm may fire during the day, but the main story will be strong southeasterly winds between 15-30 mph and gusting perhaps to 40 through the day.

Our next cold front will arrive through the overnight Saturday into Sunday to bring likely severe weather and perhaps outbreak level severe storms. We are in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) with our main threats being tornadoes (some possibly strong which are EF-2 and greater) and winds up to 70 mph. Hail up to golf ball size could also accompany storms. Storms will be both ahead of a line and arranged into a line, but not a squall line. The mode is irrelevant to our threats. The main timing looks to be between midnight and 8am Sunday morning. There is a small chance we could see storms fire well ahead of the front as early as 9am Saturday which could also have a severe risk.

Rain will end Sunday morning with cooler temperatures through the day as our high will be overnight. We will then dry out Monday through Wednesday with our next system arriving on Thursday to bring more showers. At this point, severe weather is looking less likely for Thursday.