Friday, July 12 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

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Flash Flood Watch for all East Mississippi Counties and Choctaw and Clarke Counties in Alabama through Monday.

Tropical Storm Barry has looked markedly better today, although thunderstorms are still missing on the northern side of the storm. We will see the outer most bands rotate through the area through the rest of the day and into the overnight as well as winds will start to get a bit more blustery through the night.

Barry is forecast to make landfall likely through Vermilion Bay, Louisiana near New Iberia and Morgan City Saturday as a category one hurricane. Barry will then eventually turn towards the north and move through central Louisiana and Arkansas. We appear now to be completely safe from being with the center of the storm, but we will be firmly on the eastern side of the storm.

The question now for us is no longer about the track of the storm, but it is the structure as it moves northward through Louisiana and Arkansas. Some models keep the storm more compact and thus us seeing only the outer most bands from the storm. Some models develop a large swath of rain on the eastern side and keep us inundated with rain starting late Saturday into Monday. As a result of some of this discrepancy, but keeping in mind how storms typically evolve over land, I will bump rain chances up for Sunday and increase rain amounts and align a little closer with Andrew's update from this morning. Therefore, my official forecast is for 2-8" area wide with 2" in West Alabama and potentially upwards of 8" along and west of Highway 35. This will lead to some flooding concerns, which is why flash flood watches are up.

Rain will taper off through the day on Monday as the center of what is left of Barry moves away from the area. After that, we we will see only pop-up storms around the area as we keep a still somewhat humid air mass in place as highs warm back into the middle 90s for the second half of next week.

This is my last forecast discussion with you all as Friday is my last day on air. I thank you for your viewership and trust over the last 8.5 years. My family and I begin a new chapter in Raleigh next week.