Monday, July 8 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

By  | 

Isolated storms have been with us this afternoon thanks to heat and humidity and a weak upper level low diving southward. This low will continue to drift south through the night and enter the Gulf on Wednesday. We will keep pop-up storm chances possible each afternoon through Wednesday thanks to heat and humidity. High pressure will return as our dominate weather maker to allow for highs to reach the upper 90s again with heat index values near and above 105.

The aforementioned upper level low will sit in the northern Gulf of Mexico. As it does, it will likely begin to quickly acquire tropical characteristics and become a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center gives this low an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days. Models are coming into agreement of this low drifting west and likely coming onshore Saturday or Sunday in Louisiana or Texas. Exact track and strength, however, remains highly uncertain and will until we get an actual area of low pressure to track. Any interests along the Gulf Coast this weekend should monitor this system closely.

For us, direct impacts seem unlikely at this point, especially if the western movement verifies. However, we will be on the eastern side of the system with increased southerly winds that may allow for increased showers and storms in our area. As a result, I will increase clouds and rain chances late week and this weekend and drop highs to account for this likely scenario. Confidence in this weekend's forecast is lower than normal, and will remain so until we are very confident in the track of this potential tropical system. If this system is named, it will be Barry.