FLASH FLOOD WATCH
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until midnight Tuesday night. Locally, it includes Lauderdale, Kemper, Neshoba, Newton, Winston, Noxubee, Leake, and Scott counties in Mississippi and Sumter, Marengo, Green, Hale, and Pickens counties in Alabama. Radar estimates rainfall amounts between two and four inches with up to another two inches possible.
Flood Warnings continue for the Pearl River near Philadelphia, the Tombigbee River near Demopolis, the Tombigbee River at Gainesville, the Tombigbee River near Bevill, the Tombigbee River near Coffeeville, and the Noxubee River at Macon.
Widespread heavy rain has largely been relentless today, though it started easing in the late afternoon for some areas. Rain fell at rates as high as four inches per hour at times. Those rainfall rates didn't last as long as an hour, fortunately.
The prolonged heavy rain, even at lower rainfall rates than four inches per hour, has contributed to some street flooding. The Pearl River near Philadelphia, the Tombigbee River, the Sucarnoochee River, and the Noxubee River are already overflowing their banks. Even rivers that aren't flooding are running high and fast. Rivers are dangerous right now. Until water levels subside and the fast flow of the rivers eases, the rivers are best avoided.
Not everyone will get breaks into the evening, and those who do will see those breaks will gradually fill in as another round of rain approaches from the west. There is some indication that rain will fade between 9 PM and midnight tonight and leave us with a prolonged break from the rain throughout Wednesday. A quick round of rain will approach late Wednesday night and track through Mississippi and Alabama through Thursday morning, then Thursday and Friday will be drier.
Even that won't be the end of the rain. A cold front on Saturday will bring still another round rain and thunder on Saturday. After that, a dry spell will lock in and could last for most of next week. The water in the rivers may take that long to subside, but any improvements in the high water levels will likely not begin until after Saturday.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS
So tonight... expect more rain, especially through the evening. Temperatures will slowly drop from near 70 to mid-60s through 10 PM. Rain will fade through midnight, and a dry break can be temporarily interrupted by occasional light showers. That mostly-dry period will last through Wednesday evening. Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon and drop back into the upper 60s through the evening. The next round of rain will arrive after 10 PM Wednesday night.