Severe thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. The primary threat from this storm system will be damaging straight-line winds. A couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out. Straight-line winds can do damage similar to that of tornadoes.
TIMING THE STORMS
The past twenty-four hours have come with some changes. The first, and most important change, is the timing. Forecast data have been trending earlier with each update. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will approach from the west at around 8 PM. Between 8 PM and 10 PM, these storms will track into Philadelphia, Louisville, Nanih Waiya, Sebastopol, and Lake. Between 10 PM and midnight, storms will track into DeKalb, Scooba, East Mississippi Community College, Preston, Klondike, Prismatic, Collinsville, Union, Decatur, East Central Community College, Newton, Lake, Lawrence, Chunky, Hickory, and Little Rock. Between midnight and 2 AM, storms will track through Meridian, MSU Meridian, Meridian Community College, Marion, Clarkdale, Lauderdale, Vimville, Causeyville, Zero, Whynot, Enterprise, Stonewall, Basic City, Quitman, Pachuta, Shubuta, Snell, Livingston, the University of West Alabama, Geiger, Emelle, Cuba, and York. Between 2 AM and 4 AM, storms will track into Demopolis, Eutaw, Butler, Needham, Lisman, Toxey, Gilbertown, Silas, Linden, Dixons Mill, Shubuta, and Waynesboro. The last lingering storms will exit by 6 AM.
The second change is one we started seeing on Monday afternoon and evening. The severe threat may be trending down a bit. The National Weather Service recognized it, too, and they have downgraded our "enhanced" risk to a "slight" risk. More information on the various risk levels is available on the WTOK Weather App. You can download it for free on your Apple and Android devices here:
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY
In addition to the tornado and straight-line wind threat, between a half-inch and an inch of rain will fall. Locally higher amounts are possible in spots. On top of the already-saturated ground, flash flooding will be possible. Keep in mind, this rain will be added to the 2-6 inches of rain from Monday and Tuesday that is running off into the the rivers. Rivers are already overflowing, and the flooding will get worse through early next week before it starts to improve. That's assuming additional rain won't complicate things, which could happen.
Storms will end Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop throughout Thursday. The day's high will happen close to midnight. The afternoon won't be any warmer than low-to-mid 50s. The sun will return on Friday. Expect freezes on both Friday and Saturday mornings. Rain will return Sunday, and another set up that favors on-and-off rain will set up through at least Tuesday.