Sunday, July 7 Evening Forecast Discussion

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7/7/19 - After an afternoon of heavy thunderstorms, things have begun to quiet down for the most part. A few clouds will stick around overnight with lows dropping to the mid 70s.

For the start of your work week, we will continue this summer-time pattern. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values near 100. A chance for pop-up storms exists each day during peak heating times. Lows will also remain in the mid 70s.

We are watching the tropics..
A trough of low pressure is currently located over northern Georgia and will continue moving southward over the next few days. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico and meanders in the warm Gulf waters for a couple of days, it will have a chance to develop into a depression (at least) by late week. Currently, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of development to 60% over the next five days.

But, where does the system go from there? Two of our most reliable long-range models are split and take the system in opposite directions. The movement of the system will be dictated by interactions with a trough and ridge. If ridging over the eastern U.S. strengthens, the system will take a more westward track. If the ridge of high pressure over eastern U.S. weakens, a trough to the north could pull the system north and east (away from Mississippi). At this point in time, it is too early to pinpoint where the system will go and what impacts we could see.

Bottom line, there is good probability of a tropical depression developing in the northern Gulf by late week and it will bear watching.