Thursday, April 11 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

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Clouds have increased today as moisture returns ahead of our cold front that will arrive tonight on breezy southerly winds. Our cold front is on track to arrive just prior to sunrise and bring likely a broken line of showers. The front looks to move through most or all of our area before it stalls Friday afternoon and starts moving back north Friday evening in advance of a much stronger system. Stray showers will be possible at almost any point during the day on Friday.

Once the warm front lifts northward Saturday morning, most of the day is likely dry as temperatures return to the lower 80s as the warm sector behind the warm front establishes itself. A shower or two is possible in the warm sector, but most of Saturday should be dry.

Confidence is increasing in severe storms Sunday morning, and I am starting to grow concerned about possible local impacts as our next cold front arrives. We are still a bit too far out for specifics, but the details are starting to come into place. Timing has slowed down to Sunday morning with the bulk of the storms likely over the heart of the viewing area by sunrise Sunday. All modes of severe weather are possible with our main threats being damaging winds and tornadoes. Tornadoes could potentially be strong (EF-2 or greater). For now, we are all under a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5, the standard risk) with the possibility of an upgrade as we get closer. You will want to make sure you have ways to receive watches and warnings early Sunday.

Rain and storms should exit by lunchtime with cooler and drier air arriving behind the front. Highs will be in the 70s to start next week with us warming into the 80s on Wednesday as showers arrive ahead of our next system that will be here late Wednesday into Thursday to bring more rain and storms, and these could bring a severe risk to the area.