Thursday, December 7 Morning Forecast Discussion

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Happy Thursday! Persistent cloud cover has kept the temperatures on the warmer side with temperatures in the low-40s in most spots as you head out the door today. There may be a stray shower through the morning hours, but rain chances will increase by the afternoon, especially south of I-20. Some rain could creep up to portions of Neshoba and Kemper counties and points north, but the rain chances there will be less, but still possible. Either way, it’ll be another damp, dreary, and cold day, with highs struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. The frontal boundary that passed by Tuesday has stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico and is entraining this moisture in as it fights the dry and bitterly cold air coming in from the north. Depending on which weather feature wins the battle will determine if snow is able to mix in by Friday morning. Let’s talk about that further…

This is a complex forecast as there are many factors that will affect whether or not snow will mix in. Here’s what we know for sure: chances of a wintry mix increases as we head further and further south of I-20. So anywhere north of I-20, the chances of snow mixing in becomes lower and lower as you head north. What we also know is that no major travel impacts are expected because the ground will be warmer and any snow that falls won’t stick to it. Maybe some minor accumulation on grassy surfaces, but that’s pretty much it.

Now for what we’re unsure of: One is how quickly the dry air will enter the area. This is important because the drier the air is, the less moisture the atmosphere can hold. So if the dry air wins out, the moisture will hold off to our south and east. The other issue is how cold the air temperature will actually get. Depending on how fast the colder air moves in, the coldest air may not arrive until after the rain moves away, keeping us at all rain when it’s moving through our area. Cloud cover throughout this timeframe may also help keep the temperatures above freezing.

In conclusion, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but confidence is increasing that snow will mix in early Friday morning, before finally changing over to rain again and moving out of area by the afternoon.

The weekend stays dry as highs get into the low-50’s. The coldest temperatures also arrive Saturday morning with lows around 24. We warm up for Monday, but cool down again on Tuesday as a dry cold front moves through. Next rain chances won’t likely move through until next weekend.