Thursday, July 11 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

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Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Scott, Smith, Jones, and Wayne Counties.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 officially became Tropical Storm Barry at 10am Thursday morning and has strengthened little since it closed its central low this morning. The storm has moved westward at about 5 mph through the day with perhaps a bit of a northwest jog the last few hours. Barry, however, has been fighting northern shear and dry air on the northern side of the storm, and its presentation has been very ragged so far today.

That could change through the night and into Friday as models continue to strengthen Barry as it approaches the Louisiana coastline. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Barry making landfall near New Iberia / Morgan City, LA Saturday morning as a category one hurricane. Barry will then drift northward through Louisiana and likely move along the Mississippi River as it tracks northward.

Models are starting to agree on a track, while a more eastern track is still possible, a central Louisiana landfall and track near the Mississippi River is most likely. This will place us squarely on the eastern side of the storm with periods of heavy rain and isolated tornadoes possible. The farther west of a track for Barry would limit impacts for us, but a more western track is also becoming unlikely. We will know for sure once Barry makes it northward turn.

For us, rainfall amounts of two to six inches look likely from Barry along with gusts to 40 mph and an isolated tornado in the strongest storms in the outer rain bands. The closer Barry is to us, our threats will increase as we move closer to the center.

Barry will exit Monday evening with us returning to a hot and humid pattern with afternoon storms through the rest of next week.