Thursday, March 14 Morning Forecast Discussion

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Happy Thursday! It’s a warm and breezy morning for us with temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s and winds generally sustained between 10 and 20 mph. A cold front is set to arrive for our Thursday and there will be some ingredients in play to allow for a few storms associated with the frontal passage to become strong to severe. The best upper-level support will stay to our north; however, there will be enough instability and wind shear to allow for severe thunderstorm development. The main threat will still be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, but a tornado or two can’t be ruled out. Wind shear profiles won’t be too favorable for tornado development but we’ll have to watch closely to see if any cells can fire up out ahead of the main squall line this afternoon. The better chances of this happening will be along the MS/AL border counties and our west-Alabama counties, all mainly along and north of I-20/59. If no storms fire can fire up, then attention will turn to a squall line that will have a damaging wind threat along with the possibility of a brief spin-up of a tornado.

Timing for possible severe storms will be between 2 and 11 p.m. No widespread severe weather event is anticipated, but still remain weather aware as you head throughout your Thursday. Scattered shower chances will continue for our Friday morning before we dry out for the back-half of the day. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the frontal passage and we only look to make it into the upper-50s for highs on Saturday, with Sunday morning lows in the upper-30s.

We’ll be dry for the weekend and continue that trend into next week. We’ll gradually warm-up through Monday until a weak, dry cold front brings in a reinforcing shot of cooler air and some increased cloud cover by Tuesday. We’ll warm up into the mid-60s for Wednesday, which is the first day of spring, after starting the day in the upper-30s.