Thursday, May 9 Morning Forecast Discussion

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Happy Thursday! Model guidance is all over the place in terms of when storms will begin and when they will end today. They also handled the overnight convection poorly, so it’s going to be tough to pinpoint an exact time frame for strong to severe storms. The best approach now is to figure out which models have an accurate depiction of the precipitation at the 4 a.m. hour (the time in which I am writing this forecast discussion). With that in mind, the time frame for storms I am calling for is about 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., but just be weather aware all day long. The tornado threat is not zero, but the chances of seeing a tornado is low. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter-sized hail are our main threats.

The severe weather threat will be gone by the overnight hours, but a few passing showers and storms will be possible as the cold front stalls out over our area. A rainy and stormy pattern will continue into Friday and last through Sunday. During this time frame, severe weather is unlikely, but a few storms could contain gusty winds and small hail. We’ll see about 1-3 inches of rainfall by Sunday evening, with some locally higher amounts possible.

We finally dry out by Monday as high pressure settles back in across the area. There will be a few disturbances trying to break down the ridge and bring back rain chances for Tuesday and Wednesday, but I think the ridge of high pressure will win out and thus I am keeping both days dry as of now. After highs in the 70s over the weekend, we should warm back up into the low-80s Monday through Wednesday, with temperatures starting out in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.