Thursday, November 2 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

A mix of sun and clouds for us on our Thursday with temperatures pushing 80 this afternoon. The warm air and more humid air will combine this afternoon and evening with an upper level low crossing north Mississippi to promote the development of showers and storms, mostly north of Interstate 20. The question is first do these storms actually develop as the best energy really rests to our north, although our atmosphere is primed for storm development. Secondly, the question becomes can these storms make use of the environment we have. If they do, these storms could get on the stronger side with some gusty winds and small hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out at this point either, but again, we first need storms to develop. This is something we will be watching through the rest of the afternoon and early evening hours.

After that, we will see just spotty showers and storms for Friday and early Saturday as the last in a series of disturbances moves through the area. After Saturday morning, high pressure will build in to effectively shut off rain chances with temperatures continuing to warm. We look to at least tie our record high on Sunday and could do the same Monday.

Our next cold front does not arrive until next Wednesday into Thursday. There are still timing issues with this front, which is not unusual for this far out, with also a question of how much rain we see. I am going to go with the slower scenario of a Thursday frontal passage and only a few showers for now. Temperatures will drop closer to seasonal values behind the front with hints that this cool down will again be short and brief.