Tuesday, July 9 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

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Another hot and humid day as temperatures have climbed towards 100 and our heat index has been over 105 through most of the afternoon. Only a pop-up storm or two has fired today as high pressure remains in control of our weather. High pressure will remain in place for Wednesday, with an almost carbon copy of today as highs reach near 100 and heat index values top 105 with only pop-up storms.

Our main concern over the next week will be the track of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Barry Wednesday or Thursday. Models have come into much better agreement today on intensity and track, but until a closed low develops, there will still be uncertainty. Models today have shifted the consensus landfall point from the Texas/Louisiana Border to closer to Morgan City, LA. As a result, what will become Barry could ride along the Mississippi River as it moves northward. This would place us in much closer proximity to the center and on the eastern side. At this point, I still expect no direct impacts from this storm for us, as it will likely be small and compact, but we will have to watch its evolution and movement carefully as an eastward jog in track will mean impacts for us.

Due to uncertainty, but adjusting with models today, I am going to increase rain chances for Sunday and Monday and decrease highs through the weekend to and into next week to compensate in track chances. Forecast confidence beyond Friday remains lower than normal.