Tuesday, March 12 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

Sunshine mixed with high clouds for us today as moisture streams in from the west ahead of our next system. We will continue to add cloud cover this evening and overnight and continue through Wednesday and Thursday. As we head into Wednesday afternoon, a shower or two will be possible as moisture continues to stream northward. Stray showers will be possible into Thursday morning.

Our next cold front will arrive Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. The delayed timing will allow us to warm to about 80. There will be some uplift with the front to force storms to develop at least along, if not also ahead of, the front. What is a question at this point is what type of shear is in place. Some models show more unidirectional shear (wind speed the same direction with height) while others show winds turning with height. If winds are unidirectional, we will see a squall line with damaging winds and hail our main threats. If we see more turning winds with height, tornadoes will be possible across the area in addition to the other threats. It is definitely something we will want to watch as we get closer.

Behind the front, we turn to laissez-faire weather across the area as highs drop into the 50s and 60s. Sunshine will be in abundance through the weekend and into next week with us potential dry until late next week or next weekend.