Wednesday, July 10 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

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Flash Flood Watch for Wayne County from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

Hot and humid again today as Key Field has flirted with 100 so far today. In fact, we have been 90 and hotter since 9:25 this morning. A few pop-up storms will be around as head through the afternoon and early evening hours with some clouds remaining through the overnight.

Our low in the Gulf of Mexico has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two as of 10am today, which is a precursor to a tropical depression or tropical storm. Hurricane Hunters are investigating the storm this afternoon with Tropical Storm Watches up along the Louisiana coastline. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has what will become Barry make landfall along the central Louisiana coastline late Saturday / early Sunday as a strong category one hurricane.

Models have been shifting tracks over the last day of this system, and this is not a surprise as they struggle to locate a center that is still forming and then track it forward in time. Once a closed center is developed, tracks will narrow in on a likely track and landfall location. For now, models are anywhere from Houston / Galveston, TX to near New Orleans for landfall point with most somewhere near New Iberia, Houma, or Morgan City, LA.

Where this makes landfall, and how strong it is, will have impacts for us. The farther west Barry makes landfall, the less likely we are to see direct impacts and only see additional clouds and rain. The farther east, the more likely we could see heavy rain and wind from this system with the potential of some isolated tornadoes from being on the eastern side of the system. Since track is still a question, I remain in low confidence in the forecast for the weekend. However, as more models shift more to an eastern landfall, I will bump up rain chances for Saturday and Sunday and drop highs further both days to account for this solution.

Barry will exit to start next week with rain chances coming to an end on Monday and skies clearing into the middle of next week as we return to highs in the 90s.