Wednesday, June 5 Morning Forecast Discussion

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Happy Wednesday! It’s a very warm and very muggy start to our Wednesday, with temperatures mainly in the mid-70s. Despite being one of the warmest starts we’ve seen in the past two weeks, increased cloud cover and a chance of scattered storms will keep high temperatures down for our Wednesday. Highs are expected to climb into the mid-to-upper-80s, which is right around where we should be for this time of year. There will be a chance of a morning shower or two, with a few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. We’ll see a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder throughout the overnight time frame, with Thursday morning lows in the low-to-mid-70s.

A low pressure system aided by tropical moisture will be responsible for widespread showers and storms through the weekend, particularly on Thursday and Friday. This will also help to keep high temperatures generally in the low-to-mid-80s. Periods of rain and storms are likely for Thursday and Friday, and a few storms on Friday could contain gusty winds and maybe small hail as our instability will be greatest on Friday. Scattered storms will be possible on Saturday as the low pressure system stalls out over our area. Saturday won’t be an all-day wash-out, but still keep a watchful eye to the sky for any arriving storms. Isolated storms will be possible on Sunday and perhaps a leftover shower or storm on Monday. We’ll see about 2-4 inches of rainfall, with some locally higher amounts possible from today through Monday. Not expecting widespread flash flooding due to the recent dry spell, but some minor flash flooding will be possible, especially on Friday.

We’ll dry out by Tuesday as a cold front will move through after the low pressure system departs and will act to reinforce drier air by Tuesday. Some models hint at dew points dropping into the 50s by Tuesday behind the front, which means it could be a pretty “strong” cold front considering it is June. However, I’m not going to drop temperatures by Tuesday all that much right now. That’s because a cold front like that for this time of year is not common and we are still far enough away from Tuesday to make me not confident enough in the strength of the front at this time.