Wednesday, March 13 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

Lots of clouds for us on our Wednesday, and we will see showers possible around the area this evening and into the day on Thursday thanks to strong southerly winds and moisture returning ahead of our next system. There are still plenty of questions about Thursday afternoon and evening, but some things have come in clearer today.

Showers will be possible throughout the entire day before our main rain and storm chances arrive after 3pm and last until about midnight Friday. A cold front will slowly begin moving to the east, and it will take the front arriving to force storms up as there will be little to no upper level support. We should have instability in place as temperatures should climb to about 80 with plenty of moisture in place. Wind shear is perhaps the biggest questions and some models show unidirectional shear (wind direction the same with height) while others show turning with height. If have have unidirectional shear, we will see a squall line with damaging winds the primary threat and a brief tornado possible only in bowing segments. If, however, we have winds turning with height, and can get storms to fire, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. Unfortunately, we can't answer that question until Thursday. A few storms will be possible either way, the question will be their severity as we move through the day.

The front will continue moving southward with a few showers possible still early on Friday south of Interstate 20 as the front clears. Once the front leaves, skies clear from north to south with colder air arriving. Highs through the weekend will be in the upper 50s to near 60 with lows dropping into the 30s Sunday morning. We see ample sunshine through the weekend and to start next week as temperatures warm towards the start of Spring but will remain below average.