Wednesday, May 8 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

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Partly to mostly cloudy skies have been the story for us today thanks to clouds from a storm system to our west. Ahead of the main line of storms currently in Louisiana, showers and storms have fired in southwest Mississippi. A shower or storm from this may survive long enough to produce a shower over mainly locations west of Highway 15 this evening, but confidence is low that any rain survives this evening this far east.

The upcoming forecast is a mess, not just in terms of rainfall, but also in nailing down specifics. The current squall line to our west should fizzle out before it makes it here, or be shunted northward by the ridge of high pressure still currently holding on south of Interstate 20. A new line of storms should form tomorrow morning and afternoon and move into our area. A damaging wind threat is our primary concern, but a rogue tornado is not impossible. Rainfall will also be heavy within this line, especially if it stalls over us as some models have it doing. The going forecast of rain and storms in the afternoon, with some strong to severe possible, will be maintained at this point.

After Thursday, periods of rain will be the story Friday through Sunday. As has been the case the last few days, models really are handling this period poorly due to timing of features that will prompt the rain to actually fall. The going "periods of rain" and rain chances in the forecast will also be maintained, and it appears the wettest period will be Saturday into Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts of one to three inches still look likely, although it is becoming increasingly possible most of that falls Thursday afternoon with our squall line, if it stalls over us.

We will dry out for Monday and Tuesday and then be watching a system approaching our area for the middle to latter parts of next week. For now, I will keep Wednesday dry but increase clouds in advance of our next system.