Wednesday, May 8 Morning Forecast Discussion

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Happy Wednesday! Another warm day is in store for us today with high temperatures expected to climb into the upper-80s to near 90. If we do manage to hit 90 today, it will be the first time this year. A pop-up shower or storm can’t entirely be ruled out this afternoon, but the majority of us look to stay dry. The forecast gets a bit complicated overnight tonight, and here’s why: a squall line bringing strong to severe storms over the ArkLaMiss will be ongoing during the early evening hours. This activity will likely fizzle out before it gets to our neck of the woods, keeping us either dry or with a leftover shower or two around midnight. If the squall line ends up being able to survive (unlikely, but still a possibility), it will not be severe because we will be losing instability and thus the line will be weakening as it moves across Mississippi. However, one or two storms could have gusty winds and small hail mainly west of Highway 15.

A better chance of storms will be with us during the afternoon hours on our Thursday. A cold front is expected to move through and likely bring a broken line or squall line across our area. The atmosphere will be very unstable, but wind shear will be on the lower-side. This will result in a severe weather threat. No widespread severe weather is expected, but one or two storms could contain large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can’t entirely be ruled out. Storms could fire up as early as 2/3 p.m., with storms exiting our area around 9 p.m. Thursday night.

The cold front will weaken and stall out overnight Thursday and it looks to stay with us through Sunday. This will keep us under a rainy and stormy pattern, especially on Friday and Saturday. No severe weather is expected on Friday, but an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and small hail can’t be ruled out on Saturday depending on how a low pressure system develops to our west. Highs will be in the upper-70s this weekend thanks to the cloud cover and rain chances. We’ll be left with isolated showers and storms on Sunday, with rain chances finally going away on Monday. We could see 2-4 inches of rain when all is said and done, with locally higher amounts possible. Stray shower chances return on Tuesday as highs return to the low-80s.